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Latest ZFP from WFO RIW

		
National Weather Service Local Forecast for Star Valley Ranch
Updated: 25 Jul 14:07 pm MDT

Tonight... Patchy smoke. Clear, with a low around 52. Northwest
wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable. 

Monday... Patchy smoke. Sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind
becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. 

Monday Night... Mostly clear, with a low around 56. West
northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east southeast after midnight. 

Tuesday... A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
after noon.  Increasing clouds, with a high near 87. Light and
variable wind becoming west southwest 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. 

Tuesday Night... A 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms before midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
West southwest wind 5 to 13 mph becoming southeast after midnight. 

Wednesday... A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Southeast wind 5 to 10
mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. 

Wednesday Night... A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms before midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming east after midnight. 

Thursday... A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
after noon.  Partly sunny, with a high near 80.

Thursday Night... A chance of showers and thunderstorms before
midnight, then a slight chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low
around 54. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday... A slight chance of showers, then showers likely and
possibly a thunderstorm after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near
80. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night... Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Saturday... Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.  Mostly
sunny, with a high near 78.

Saturday Night... Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Sunday... Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.  Mostly
sunny, with a high near 81.

		

Latest AFD from WFO RIW

		
630 
FXUS65 KRIW 252242
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
442 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Monday night
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 

Still sitting in the area where there's not a whole lot of
forcing, which will continue to keep hot, dry and smoky 
conditions in the area for today. Smoke does appear to be thinning
out, however, current satellite trends have significantly thicker
smoke over Idaho moving this way. Some western locations are 
experiencing this thicker smoke shield presently. Smoke will 
continue to stick around through the day, but as we shift to 
upper- level ridging, will be tapering off the smoke into late 
Monday. Still looking at a mostly dry day today, but can't rule 
out a shower or storm in the far eastern fringes of the CWA. 

The hot and dry conditions continue into Monday, as the upper-
level ridge continues to build over the region. Temperatures 
Monday will approach near record highs. Didn't add any convection 
to the grids, as models are very consistent to keeping the region
dry Monday. This does change Tuesday, as the high shifts 
eastward. As the high shifts, moisture begins to advect into the 
region. This would favor convection development, but presently 
looking at the southwest as the most favorable location. 
Nonetheless, the trend of dry, near-record breaking temperatures 
and elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the 
period but welcomed scattered PoP does look possible toward the 
end of the term.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday 

Overview...High pressure will be in control over the region through 
much of the week. Hot temperatures will continue through this time, 
with record highs possible Tuesday. Increasing chances for 
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread thunderstorms 
possible across the forecast area Thursday and Friday. Locally heavy 
rain will be the main threat due to above normal precipitable water 
(PWat) values and slow storm motions. Temperatures will be slightly 
cooler, due to this increase in moisture, cloud cover and 
thunderstorm chances. 

Synopsis...The strong ridge will expand into the Central Plains 
Tuesday, shifting to the NE/KS/CO area by Wednesday. Hot and dry 
conditions remain in the forecast Tuesday, with record highs 
possible. Winds will also remain light, due to the proximity of the 
upper high. Thus, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions 
will continue as well. A surge of monsoonal moisture over the Great 
Basin will begin to creep into far western portions of the state 
Tuesday, as the high starts its shift to the southeast. PWats will 
be 150 to 200% of normal in this area and well above the 90th 
percentile for this time of year. This, in addition to weak flow at 
700mb, will mean the main threat with any convection will be locally 
heavy rain. By Wednesday, thunderstorm chances will be more 
widespread across the area as shortwaves move over the area from the 
south. This pattern will continue through Saturday. Flash flooding 
cannot be ruled out for the later half of the week, due to these 
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday
Issued at 440 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021 

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminal sites, however 
visibility will be reduced over the region by smoke. Localized MVFR 
conditions will remain possible through the period, with partial 
mountain obscuration. Any lingering convection will be over by 03Z. 
Expect mainly dry and smoky conditions, with light winds, again 
Monday. Any convection will be very isolated over the south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

High pressure will continue to dominate the region today. An 
isolated shower or two may be possible across the far eastern 
portions of Sweetwater and Johnson counties. Light to moderate winds 
are expected today with fair to good smoke dispersal in this 
afternoon. Relative humidity will dip below 15 percent across the 
southwestern zone and most of the basins. Relative humidity recovery 
overnight appears to be fair to good. The dry and hot pattern will 
continue well into Monday and Tuesday but increasing chances of 
showers and storms return for Tuesday with the increasing moisture 
that's advecting into the region.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vorst
LONG TERM...LaVoie
AVIATION...LaVoie
FIRE WEATHER...Vorst

		

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