Latest ZFP from WFO RIW

		
National Weather Service Local Forecast for Star Valley Ranch
Updated: Tue Oct 22  1:01 am MT

Overnight... Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. East
southeast wind around 9 mph. 

Tuesday... Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a
high near 60. Southeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming west in the
afternoon. 

Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. West wind
6 to 9 mph becoming east southeast in the evening. 

Wednesday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. South southeast
wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust
as high as 20 mph. 

Wednesday Night... A 50 percent chance of showers.  Mostly
cloudy, with a low around 31. West southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. 

Thursday... A chance of rain showers, mixing with snow after
7am, then gradually ending.  Partly sunny, with a high near 49. West
wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night... Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Light and
variable wind. 

Friday... Sunny, with a high near 58.

Friday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Saturday... Sunny, with a high near 64.

Saturday Night... Mostly clear, with a low around 33.

Sunday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

Sunday Night... A chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low
around 31.

Monday... A chance of rain and snow showers.  Partly sunny,
with a high near 49.

		

Latest AFD from WFO RIW

		
127 
FXUS65 KRIW 220353
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
953 PM MDT Mon Oct 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and breezy the next few days.

- A quick moving weather system Wednesday night into Thursday
  brings a small chance for light precipitation for the 
  northern half of the area.

- The warm and dry pattern continues into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2024

The warm and dry pattern continues today. Afternoon highs will be 8 
to 12 degrees above normal. Some areas east of the Continental 
Divide will reach about 70 degrees. The cutoff low to the southeast 
will allow for breezy winds as well today, though nothing too 
unusual by Wyoming standards. West to southwest winds up to 20 mph 
occur for much of the area. The strongest winds are over southern 
Wyoming, where gusts 20 to 30 mph are likely. Lower elevation winds 
decrease this evening, though winds over the mountains continue 
through the night.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature much the same as zonal flow 
dominates over Wyoming. Winds will be a little weaker these two 
days, with the strongest winds mainly confined to the mountains and 
Wind Corridor (from roughly South Pass to Casper).

The next weather feature of some interest moves through overnight 
Wednesday through Thursday in the form of a fast moving shortwave. 
Temperatures will cool a few degrees Thursday, as a result. 
Precipitation is also possible with this system Wednesday night 
through around midday Thursday. Not expected much of anything here 
due to multiple factors- main jet stream stays north, the system is 
fast moving, and overall moisture content is somewhat lacking. The 
best chances (15% to 30%) occur across the northern half of the 
area, from roughly a Jackson to Midwest line, north. Liquid amounts 
at this time are low, with less than 0.1 inches for most of that 
mentioned area. The "best" amounts are over Yellowstone National 
Park, where around 0.1 inches are possible, some in the form of a 
light snow. So, overall, this fast moving system should remain 
unimpactful.

Slight ridging looks to build in for the coming weekend, which would 
continue the dry pattern, with temperatures trending up slightly. 
Taking a peek at long range models, there is possibility for a 
longwave trough sometime Monday to Wednesday. This far out, however, 
details and confidence are lacking.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 952 PM MDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. A 
shortwave will slide through Tuesday, with a weak cold front 
dropping in from the north Tuesday morning through Tuesday 
afternoon. The cold front will only affect terminals east of the 
Continental Divide as it passes south through the area, with the 
wind shifting northerly once it passes through. Wind will increase 
ahead of this cold front Tuesday afternoon, with gusts of 15-25 
knots for most terminals. A FEW030 clouds are possible (40-50%) at 
KCPR once the cold front passes by the terminal Tuesday evening.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for 
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wittmann
AVIATION...Rowe