Latest ZFP from WFO RIW

		
National Weather Service Local Forecast for Star Valley Ranch
Updated: 22 May 15:05 pm MDT

This Afternoon... Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. 
Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 49. Breezy, with a
west northwest wind around 15 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tonight... A chance of rain showers, mixing with snow after
11pm, then gradually ending. Some thunder is also possible.  Mostly
cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming
light and variable  after midnight.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday... Increasing clouds, with a high near 57. Light and
variable wind becoming west northwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. 

Monday Night... A slight chance of rain showers after midnight,
mixing with snow after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Northwest wind 5 to 14 mph becoming southeast after midnight.  Chance
of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday... A chance of snow showers before 7am, then a chance
of rain and snow showers between 7am and 9am, then a chance of rain
showers after 9am. Some thunder is also possible.  Partly sunny, with
a high near 56. Breezy, with a southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming
west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. 
Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation
expected. 

Tuesday Night... Mostly clear, with a low around 34. West
northwest wind 5 to 14 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.
Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. 

Wednesday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Breezy, with a
south southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 11 to 16 mph in the
afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. 

Wednesday Night... Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

Thursday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Thursday Night... A 20 percent chance of showers after
midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.

Friday... A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly
cloudy, with a high near 66. Breezy. 

Friday Night... A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly
cloudy, with a low around 42. Breezy. 

Saturday... Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.  Mostly
cloudy, with a high near 57. Breezy. 

		

Latest AFD from WFO RIW

		
916 
FXUS65 KRIW 222027
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
Issued by National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
227 PM MDT Sun May 22 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun May 22 2022

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this
evening and into the overnight hours as shortwave trough moves 
across the Northern Rockies. Although showers usually end quickly 
after sunset, the synoptic lift associated with the shortwave 
should be enough to support convective activity into the 
overnight, especially east of the Divide and for Sweetwater 
County. During the early morning hours, temperatures are likely to
have cooled into the 30s, meaning that some trace snow 
accumulations are possible through sunrise. That being said, any 
snow will melt quickly for the lower elevations where ground 
temperatures are quite warm.

By Monday morning, most of the shower activity will have exited
east over eastern Wyoming. Showers redevelop over the mountains
and east of the Divide during the afternoon as cold air aloft aids
in providing marginal instability, but will again be very hit-or-
miss, not widespread. Any rain accumulations will be minimal.
Temperatures will be within a couple degrees of readings seen
Sunday, which are about 10 degrees below seasonal averages. Winds
are forecast to be light during the daytime, with gusts in the 15
to 25 mph range for most.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun May 22 2022

Tuesday will start off with a minor trough making its way across
western and central Wyoming. Showers will start in the northwest
and west, mainly rain, but snow in the higher elevations. QPF
remains on the low side, so no significant accumulations are
expected. There will most likely be afternoon convection
developing as well. Wind speeds will stay fairly reasonable, with
gusts of 20 to 25 mph for the usual wind prone locations.
Wednesday and Thursday will see a change to drier weather as a
ridge moves into the area. Temperatures will warm up nicely,with 
highs reaching the low to mid 70s, upper 50s in the northwest. 
Thursday could see highs climbing into the low 80s in the basins 
east of the Divide. The ridge will bring a stronger gradient 
across the area, with winds by Thursday gusting 30 mph. Strongest 
winds will be along the mountains and across the southern wind 
corridor.

The models are still indicating another trough moving into the
northwest late Friday morning, with mainly rain showers and some
afternoon convection. Temperatures will stay on the warm side,
with 60s in the west and low to mid 80s in the east. There also
looks to be a stronger gradient on Friday with westerly wind gusts
possibly climbing into the 35 up to 45 mph range. Saturday will
see continued impacts from this trough, with showers spreading
east of the Divide. Winds will be strong again, although high
temperatures will drop back into the 60s to low 70s, with upper
40s to mid-50s in the west and northwest.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sun May 22 2022

VFR conditions prevail today, with partly cloudy skies and 
scattered afternoon and evening rain showers for lower elevations 
(snow showers above 7000 ft MSL). A few of the strongest showers 
could develop enough to become thunderstorms this afternoon, but 
strong storms with hail and damaging winds are not expected. 
Nevertheless, brief erratic gusty winds are possible in the 
immediate vicinity of any showers.

Outside of showers/thunderstorms, winds today will be light, with
the Upper Green River Basin (including KEMM, KBPI, KPNA, and KRKS)
seeing afternoon westerly gusts of 20 to 25 kt. Skies clear
overnight with another day of light winds Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 225 PM MDT Sun May 22 2022

Fire weather concerns are low for the first half of the week, as
temperatures remain below average, green up is underway, and
afternoon humidities will be above critical values. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
today through Tuesday, but strong storms with frequent lightning
are unlikely. Winds will also be fairly light, with 20 to 30 mph
gusts being the highest expected outside of isolated brief erratic
thunderstorm gusts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VandenBoogart
LONG TERM...Swanson
AVIATION...VandenBoogart/Allen
FIRE WEATHER...VandenBoogart