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Latest ZFP from WFO RIW

		
National Weather Service Local Forecast for Star Valley Ranch
Updated: Thu May 30  3:28 pm MT

This Afternoon... Sunny, with a high near 60. West wind around
10 mph. 

Tonight... Mostly clear, with a low around 35. West wind 5 to 9
mph becoming light and variable. 

Friday... Sunny, with a high near 67. Light and variable wind
becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. 

Friday Night... Mostly clear, with a low around 38. West wind
around 6 mph becoming light and variable  after midnight. 

Saturday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind
becoming west southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. 

Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. West
wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable  after midnight. 

Sunday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Light and variable
wind becoming west 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as
high as 20 mph. 

Sunday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.

Monday... A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
after noon.  Partly sunny, with a high near 72.

Monday Night... A chance of showers and thunderstorms before
midnight, then a slight chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low
around 48. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Wednesday... Sunny, with a high near 75.

		

Latest AFD from WFO RIW

		
004 
FXUS65 KRIW 302157
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
357 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daytime high temperatures 5-10F above normal Saturday through
  Monday initiate another period of active snow melt in the
  mountains. Foothill creeks and streams will see daily diurnal
  water rises.

- Breezy west to southwest wind on Monday and Tuesday could
  heighten rangeland fire conditions over central and southern 
  Wyoming.

- Ensemble forecasts are in agreement with a ridge of high 
  pressure developing over the western United States by the 
  middle of next week. Temperatures will be well-above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Mid-level moisture within cyclonic flow draped over the northern 
half of the forecast area has allowed for isolated showers and cloud 
cover over the northern mountains today. Otherwise, plenty of 
sunshine and more seasonable temperatures across the the remainder 
of the forecast area Thursday afternoon. The cyclonic flow persists 
across the north overnight enabling a few showers to linger over the 
northern mountains into Friday morning. The parent trough over the 
Canadian Prairie Provinces lifts northeast by midday Friday. This 
leaves the forecast area with a mostly clear sky Friday afternoon 
and night. There will be a breezy west wind across southern Wyoming, 
but nothing out of the ordinary. Temperatures warm to at or just 
above seasonal normals regionwide. 

Zonal flow is found across the region through the weekend. 
Temperatures will be running 5-10F above normal both days, which 
allows for a period of active mountain snowmelt. Much of the 
snowpack is now confined to elevations above 9K feet. Foothill 
creeks and streams will see daily diurnal rises, but available 
channel capacity and the fact this will be higher elevation melt
should limit flooding concerns. The exceptions would be the Salt
and Snake drainages where lower snow has yet to melt, and those
drainages fed by the northern Bighorn Mountains. Mid-level 
moisture sneaks into southwest Wyoming Saturday and ignites 
isolated afternoon and early evening showers and storms in that 
region. A better plume of mid-level moisture arrives from the 
west Saturday night and Sunday, leading to better coverage over 
the northwest-quarter of the state during that time period.

A deepening trough off the Pacific Northwest coast generates 
southwest flow aloft Monday leading to even warmer temperatures.
The above normal temperatures combined with a breezy southwest 
wind and a drier airmass elevates rangeland fire weather 
concerns Monday. However, many areas are still in greenup. The 
flow flattens Tuesday as shortwave energy rolls through the 
Northern Rockies with little noticeable impacts to sensible 
weather. It may be a bit breezier Tuesday as the pressure 
gradient tightens. Attention then turns to a building ridge 
across the western United States. Much above normal temperatures
in the 80s and even lower 90s look increasingly likely. Current
projections have daily highs the latter half of next week 
falling short of record highs that run in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 356 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all terminals. 
Skies will remain mostly clear across the region through the period 
as well, with only FEW to SCT high clouds. Breezy west-northwest 
winds will develop early in the period at most terminals. Winds 
decrease to light and variable drainage flows toward sunset and 
light and variable winds will prevail through Friday morning. Mid-
level cigs across KCOD and KWRL will persist through much of the 
overnight behind the passage of the weak boundary that moved through 
during the afternoon. A few isolated rain showers may be possible 
through 03Z as a result (20% chance at KCOD and 10% chance at KWRL), 
but due to low confidence in these showers, have left mentions out 
of the TAFs. By 18Z Friday, SKC will prevail for almost all 
terminals. West-northwest winds will also increase late in the 
period, with gusts 20 to 25kts possible Friday afternoon. 

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for 
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CNJ
AVIATION...Hensley

		

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