Latest ZFP from WFO RIW

		
National Weather Service Local Forecast for Star Valley Ranch
Updated: 21 Nov 11:17 am MST

This Afternoon... A slight chance of snow before 2pm, then a
slight chance of rain and snow.  Partly sunny, with a high near 40.
Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight... A 20 percent chance of snow before 8pm.  Patchy fog
after midnight.  Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 19. Light
southeast wind. 

Friday... Patchy fog before 10am.  Otherwise, partly sunny,
with a high near 39. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the
afternoon. 

Friday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. Light west
wind. 

Saturday... Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Light west wind.


Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Light
southwest wind. 

Sunday... A 30 percent chance of snow after 11am.  Mostly
cloudy, with a high near 40. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Winds could
gust as high as 28 mph. 

Sunday Night... Snow likely, mainly after 11pm.  Mostly cloudy,
with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday... Snow likely.  Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of
precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night... A 30 percent chance of snow.  Mostly cloudy,
with a low around 15.

Tuesday... A chance of snow.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near
24.

Tuesday Night... A chance of snow.  Mostly cloudy, with a low
around 13.

Wednesday... Snow likely.  Cloudy, with a high near 28.

		

Latest AFD from WFO RIW

		National Weather Service Riverton WY
1121 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2019

Snow has tapered to very light snow/flurries across central and
southern parts of the forecast area. After sunrise the bulk of
this very light snow will be confined to the southern areas. This
activity looks to continue on and off all day, and into the
evening. Additional accumulations will be an inch or less. The
easterly winds over the south will be weakening as the surface
pressure gradient relaxes thus blowing snow will become less of an
issue. Have cancelled all winter highlights except for eastern
Sweetwater where it has been downgraded to an advisory. Over
northern and central areas decreasing cloudiness from north to
south will occur today. There could also be patchy fog in a few
areas.

Tonight, northern and central areas will be mainly clear with a
chance for some fog. The southern areas could keep their low
clouds for much of the night limiting the chance for fog.

Dry and slightly warmer by 5 to 10 degrees in most locations on
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2019

The beginning of the period will feature northwest flow with mainly
dry conditions through Sunday morning. Breezy conditions are likely
Saturday and Sunday afternoon from South Pass to Lander as well as
the upper Wind River Basin. Temperatures will struggle to warm up
during the afternoons across the lower basins where weaker wind is
expected.

The next system will reach the state on Sunday night as a trough
with Pacific moisture digs in from the northwest. A cold front will
sweep from the north Sunday night through Monday. This will allow
for another round of snow, this time looking most favorable across
western Wyoming. All areas currently look to get a shot at more
snow, however, and models keep snowfall at least through Monday
before solutions become more diverse. The GFS keeps precip
associated with this system into Tuesday afternoon, while the ECMWF
moves it out Monday night.

This active pattern continues midweek, as another trough with plenty
of moisture approaches the state. Currently models have the
associated precip over the area by Wednesday morning. Again, western
Wyoming look to bear the brunt of this system, but at this point all
locations have a chance of snow through at least Thursday morning.

Another thing to note will be the colder air moving in with both of
these upcoming systems. Midweek highs will only reach the 20s in
many areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2019

Low clouds are lingering in the basins keeping most location in
MVFR conditions or low-end VFR. Conditions will improve over the
next few hours as ceilings lift and VFR conditions are expected
through the rest of the TAF period. However, there are a few
exceptions. One, KJAC is SKC already. Two, KCPR is still IFR with
overcast low-level clouds. These clouds are slowly lifting as
well and VFR conditions are anticipated between 22Z and 03Z
Friday. Three, KRKS may maintain low to mid-level clouds through
the night. The last exception, to prevailing VFR conditions, is
the likely development of fog after after midnight tonight for
KJAC, KRIW, KRKS, and possibly KWRL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 233 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2019

Light winds in most locations in combination with low mixing
heights will result in poor smoke dispersal today. Light snow will
continue over the south, but any additional snow accumulations
will be under an inch. Dry and warmer Friday.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for WYZ030.

&&
		

Latest GFS MOS for JAC

		KJAC   GFS MOS GUIDANCE   11/21/2019  1200 UTC
DT /NOV  21/NOV  22                /NOV  23                /NOV  24
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                    14          39          12          36    21
TMP  32 39 37 25 21 19 17 17 30 37 35 24 19 17 16 15 27 33 33 25 24
DPT  22 21 20 19 19 18 17 16 21 20 18 17 16 15 14 14 19 20 19 21 20
CLD  CL CL CL CL CL CL SC SC FW CL CL CL CL CL FW SC SC BK OV OV OV
WDR  03 04 35 03 01 36 26 35 18 20 31 01 36 09 34 36 20 19 20 21 21
WSP  03 02 01 06 05 06 06 02 03 04 02 07 08 06 07 02 04 06 06 07 09
P06         1     0     0     0     0     0     1     1     1  2  7
P12                     0           0           1           1     7
Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0
Q12                     0           0           0           0     0
T06      0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 3  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 3  0/ 0  0/ 0
T12            0/ 0        0/ 3        0/ 0        0/ 3     0/ 2
POZ   1  0  0  1  1  0  0  1  1  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0
POS  94 94 92 93 91 93 92 95 99 96100 98 96 95 94 96100100100 96 94
TYP   S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S
SNW                     0                       0                 0
CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  6  6  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  7  7  6
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7
OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N




174
FOUS24 KWNO 211200

-----------------

KJAC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/21/2019  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
     FRI 22| SAT 23| SUN 24| MON 25| TUE 26| WED 27| THU 28|FRI CLIMO
N/X  14  39| 12  36| 21  39| 21  29| 13  26|  9  26| 16  27|  1 12 32
TMP  17  35| 16  33| 24  35| 24  26| 17  22| 12  24| 19  23|  4
DPT  17  18| 14  19| 20  23| 18  13| 12  15| 12  18| 16  14|  2
CLD  PC  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV
WND   6   6|  8   7|  9  18| 20  11| 11   7| 17  17| 15  15| 14
P12   0   0|  1   1|  7  23| 52  31| 44  39| 32  60| 42  22| 22999999
P24       2|      1|     23|     66|     54|     74|     48|      999
Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  1   1|  1   3|       |
Q24       0|      0|      0|      1|      1|      2|       |
T12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  2   1|  1   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0
T24        |  0    |  0    |  2    |  1    |  1    |  0    |  0
PZP   2   0|  1   0|  1   0|  1   0|  1   1|  1   1|  1   0|  1
PSN  93  96| 94  93| 95  92| 92  92| 95  94| 92  94| 92  93| 93
PRS   5   4|  5   7|  4   8|  7   8|  4   5|  6   6|  7   7|  7
TYP   S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S
SNW       0|      0|      0|      2|      2|      8|       |