Latest ZFP from WFO RIW

		
National Weather Service Local Forecast for Star Valley Ranch
Updated: Fri Apr 19  3:28 pm MT

This Afternoon... Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Northeast
wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north northwest. 

Tonight... Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear,
with a low around 25. North northwest wind around 6 mph becoming east
southeast after midnight. 

Saturday... Sunny, with a high near 52. East southeast wind 5
to 9 mph becoming west in the afternoon. 

Saturday Night... Mostly clear, with a low around 34. West
northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming southeast after midnight. 

Sunday... Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Southeast wind 6
to 14 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as
21 mph. 

Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Southwest
wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. 

Monday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. West wind 6 to 14
mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. 

Monday Night... Mostly clear, with a low around 30.

Tuesday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

Tuesday Night... A 20 percent chance of showers.  Mostly
cloudy, with a low around 37.

Wednesday... A chance of showers.  Partly sunny, with a high
near 62.

Wednesday Night... A chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a
low around 39.

Thursday... Showers likely.  Partly sunny, with a high near 56.

		

Latest AFD from WFO RIW

		
409 
FXUS65 KRIW 111023
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
423 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures today through Sunday. Most of the area
  will remain dry, though some light showers are likely (40%) 
  over and near the mountains Friday and Saturday. 

- Gusty wind and low humidity will lead to widespread elevated
  fire weather conditions Friday through the weekend.

- Precipitation chances increase Sunday as the next system
  approaches. A return to cooler and wetter weather is favorable by
  the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A warming trend begins today as ridging pushes into the region. This 
will lead to a dry and mostly sunny day, with temperatures peaking 
in the 50s and 60s for most lower elevation locations. It will be a 
little breezy in the usual spots, but nothing out of the ordinary by 
Wyoming standards. 

Flow aloft will become southwesterly on Friday as a deepening low 
drops south off the coast of California. This will advect in even 
warmer temperatures through the weekend, with highs generally 
peaking 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. This 
will also come with an increased, mixing southwest wind all three 
days. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be 
widespread through the weekend, with Sunday the most likely day to 
need fire weather highlights across portions of central and southern 
Wyoming. There should also be just enough Pacific moisture and 
shortwave lift for some shower activity Friday and Saturday, with 
the best chances across the mountains. 

The precipitation forecast becomes more tricky on Sunday as the
low mentioned above approaches the Rockies. Recent trends have 
slowed the arrival of this system into early next week, and have
also split it into one or two weaker systems. There is also 
still plenty of uncertainty on where this will track, with a 
south trend becoming more apparent in some model solutions. 
Regardless, moisture should start to increase over the area 
Sunday afternoon; the forecast reflects the uncertainty with 
generally light PoPs for the mountains, spreading to lower 
elevations Sunday evening. Ensemble 500mb cluster guidance 
continues to favor the low to pass to our south through Monday, 
followed quickly by a broader trough dropping south out of 
Canada. This second trough may end up being the main event, as 
this scenario would lead to widespread precipitation and much 
cooler temperatures as it sweeps south through midweek. In 
summary - while details are fuzzy on the timing and strength of 
any impacts, a change back to cooler and wetter conditions 
appears favorable by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 421 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions expected for the entirety of the period for all
locations. Expect winds to increase west of the Divide with 
gusts up to 18kts at BPI and PNA with 25kts at RKS. Locations 
east of the Divide will remain relatively light less than 10kts 
expected. Increasing upper level clouds late in the period after
sunset today ahead of a quick shortwave for the next TAF cycle 
but dry weather likely for all locations through 12Z Friday. 
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...Hattings