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Latest ZFP from WFO RIW
	
National Weather Service Local Forecast for Star Valley Ranch
Updated: 20 Apr 16:48 pm MDT

This Afternoon... A 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a steady temperature around 59.
West southwest wind around 5 mph. 

Tonight... A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers
likely after 2am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Light and
variable wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph after midnight. 
Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday... Scattered showers before noon, then scattered showers
and thunderstorms between noon and 4pm, then showers likely and
possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near
54. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. 
Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth
and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in
thunderstorms. 

Sunday Night... Showers likely, mainly before midnight. 
Cloudy, with a low around 36. North northwest wind around 6 mph
becoming light and variable  in the evening.  Chance of precipitation
is 70%.

Monday... A 30 percent chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with
a high near 51. Light and variable wind becoming northwest around 6
mph in the afternoon. 

Monday Night... Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Northwest
wind around 6 mph becoming calm  in the evening. 

Tuesday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Calm wind
becoming west northwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. 

Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Wednesday... Partly sunny, with a high near 59.

Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Thursday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

Thursday Night... A chance of showers and thunderstorms. 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Friday... A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly
cloudy, with a high near 57.

Friday Night... A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly
cloudy, with a low around 36.

Saturday... A slight chance of showers.  Partly sunny, with a
high near 53.

	

Latest AFD from WFO RIW
	National Weather Service Riverton WY
242 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Sunday

Isolated to scattered showers continue over northwest portions and
the Bighorn Basin this afternoon. These areas will become the focus
for showers and afternoon thunderstorms today, with a separate area
of showers/thunderstorms possible by mid to late afternoon from far
southwest WY to Natrona and Johnson counties. A cold front will make
its way southward over northern portions this afternoon. Cape values
of 400-800 J/kg and LIs of -2 to -4 will be common in these areas.
However, lapse rates don't look to be that steep as the 700mb 0C
line remains over southern MT today. This upper front will slowly
make its way to northern WY by 12Z Sunday, while the sfc front
slowly makes it to southern portions. Gusty northerly winds will
occur behind the front Sunday over the Bighorn Basin, Johnson,
Natrona and Sweetwater counties. Showers will become more
widespread over northern and central portions during this time,
continuing through the day Sunday. These showers will finally make
it to southern portions by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures Sunday
will be 20 to 25 degrees cooler, with snow levels ranging between
7000 and 8500 feet for much of the area through the day Sunday.
Heavy precipitation will be more favorable by Sunday afternoon and
evening. Western and southern portions continue to trend to being
affected by heavy precip. This may be due to weak, southerly
steering flow/winds, along with an influx of low level moisture.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Saturday

The models continue to indicate with today's 12Z model run a
consistency by indicating that the showers/precipitation should
become less numerous across the region by Sunday night. The short
term models are again indicating that the best forcing with the
short wave will be moving away and east-southeast of the forecast
area by early Monday morning. Will keep in the higher end of
chance to likely precip chances for Monday as the system continues
to slowly shift southeast through the region. The models continue
to indicate that the system should shear out as it shifts
southeast of Wyoming by late Monday.

After a cool Tuesday morning, a low to mid level southwest flow is
expected to set up across the forecast area with a good warm up
expected during the day on Tuesday. Temps should warm to slightly
above normal across the area, with the trending continuing through
the rest of the week and toward Saturday. Temps should warm to
about 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the extended forecast
period. The GFS/ECMWF models indicate that the zonal mid to upper
level flow should continue with another short wave expected to
move through mainly northern and northwest Wyoming between
Thursday and into early Friday. Will keep in chance pops into the
western sections to round out the extended forecast period for
Saturday, as another weakening storm system will push into the
west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)

East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals

Will continue with VFR conditions through the initial portion of
the forecast period this evening. A cold front will continue to
push south through the KCOD-KBYG line to start out the forecast
period by sagging to along a line from KRIW-KCPR by around 03z
tonight. Scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorms are
expected to be primarily along and north of the front this
afternoon and into mid evening. Will continue with the established
widespread MVFR ceilings, with some local IFR ceilings being
expected to push south to along a KCOD-KBYG line by 06z tonight
and to a KCPR-KLND line by 12z Sunday along with mountains
becoming mostly obscured. Have bumped up winds from north to
northeast across the TAF sites mainly around the 15Z Sunday
through end of forecast time frame. MVFR ceilings/ visibilities
will be predominant east of the Continental Divide after 15Z
Sunday through the end of the forecast period.

West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
continue to develop and continue through the evening with some
higher mountain obscurations. Ceilings will lower 06z-12z with
increasing mountain obscurations, showers becoming more numerous,
and snow levels lowering to 8000-9000 feet. Some borderline MVFR
ceilings/mountain obscurations are expected to push south to a
vicinity KJAC- KDUB line by 12z Sunday and continue through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The cold front will continue to slowly move south into the area
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm, mainly over the
west and north this afternoon and into this evening. Southern
Wyoming should remain largely dry through tonight. Mixing and
smoke dispersal will range from poor in portions of the northern
basins to very good to excellent in the central and southern
Wyoming. A gusty breeze will continue from Sweetwater County into
portions of Natrona County. Sunday will be much cooler with
numerous showers and higher elevation snow.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
	

Latest GFS MOS for JAC
	KJAC   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    4/20/2019  1800 UTC
DT /APR  21                  /APR  22                /APR  23
HR   00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18
N/X              38          50          37          50       27
TMP  55 47 43 41 39 41 46 47 44 41 41 40 38 39 44 48 48 42 37 30 50
DPT  37 39 37 37 36 39 39 38 40 38 36 35 34 34 35 36 37 38 37 30 35
CLD  OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK FW CL CL
WDR  19 22 02 02 36 35 35 35 02 36 01 35 35 35 26 33 35 02 36 36 20
WSP  10 12 03 03 05 06 07 07 14 15 09 11 07 07 09 05 06 09 07 04 04
P06        45    33    40    58    62    61    41    41    18  3  0
P12              61          69          83          63       18
Q06         1     1     1     1     2     2     1     1     0  0  0
Q12               1           2           3           1        0
T06     34/ 0  8/ 0  2/ 0 36/ 0  9/ 0  2/ 0  1/ 0 15/ 0  5/ 0  0/ 0
T12                  8/ 0       36/ 1        2/ 0       17/ 0  0/ 0
POZ   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0
POS   8 13 17 23 23 26 28 25 27 29 44 53 53 46 40 21 21 30 47 45 27
TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  S  S  S  R  R  R  R  R  R  R
SNW                                       0                    0
CIG   7  7  7  6  6  5  6  5  5  5  5  3  2  4  6  6  6  7  8  8  8
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  5  7  5  3  5  7  7  7  7  7  7  7
OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N BR HZ  N  N  N  N  N  N  N



375
FOUS25 KWNO 201800

-----------------

KJAC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/20/2019  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
     SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25| FRI 26| SAT 27|SUN CLIMO
N/X  38  50| 36  51| 28  61| 37  61| 39  63| 40  64| 38  59| 31 26 54
TMP  39  44| 38  48| 30  58| 39  56| 40  58| 41  61| 40  54| 33
DPT  37  40| 34  35| 30  33| 35  38| 38  38| 37  32| 35  28| 29
CLD  OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  CL| PC  OV| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV
WND  11  11| 13   7|  9   8|  7   9|  9  13| 13  14| 15  20| 18
P12  62  89| 85  50| 17   1| 14  28| 41  40| 41  39| 35  21| 24999999
P24      91|     85|     18|     32|     57|     64|     46|      999
Q12   1   3|  3   1|  0   0|  0   1|  2   2|  4   3|       |
Q24       3|      3|      0|      0|      2|      4|       |
T12  34  30| 10  14|  5   3|  1  21| 20  26| 21  28| 20   7|  3
T24        | 34    | 22    |  3    | 35    | 37    | 41    |  8
PZP   1   0|  0   1|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0
PSN   8  21| 32  23| 35  30| 24  22| 29  19| 31  23| 33  38| 43
PRS  18  12| 16  15| 21  15| 12  13|  9   8|  5   5| 20  17| 12
TYP   R   R|  R   R| RS  RS|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R| RS  RS| RS
SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |

	
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