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Latest ZFP from WFO RIW
	
National Weather Service Local Forecast for Star Valley Ranch
Updated: 20 Oct 18:15 pm MDT

Tonight... Clear, with a low around 36. Light and variable
wind. 

Sunday... Sunny, with a high near 63. Southeast wind around 5
mph becoming light and variable  in the afternoon. 

Sunday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Light and
variable wind. 

Monday... A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
after noon.  Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Light east southeast
wind. 

Monday Night... A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. East southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. 
Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday... A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also
possible after noon.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Light and
variable wind.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night... A chance of showers and thunderstorms before
midnight, then a slight chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low
around 39. Light south southwest wind.  Chance of precipitation is
30%.

Wednesday... A 20 percent chance of showers.  Partly sunny,
with a high near 56.

Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Thursday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

Thursday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Friday... A slight chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a
high near 54.

Friday Night... A slight chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy,
with a low around 35.

Saturday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.

	

Latest AFD from WFO RIW
	National Weather Service Riverton WY
147 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Will continue with the current forecast wording in the short term
forecast through Sunday. The short term models are similar
involving the continued opening up of the upper trough/weakened
upper low across California. Low to mid level moisture is progged
by the short term models to move progressively north-northeastward
toward the western counties through Sunday afternoon out of Utah.
At this time, it looks like that sufficient dry air surface and
aloft should limit mention of any isolated/widely scattered
showers or storms, although mid level clouds could result in some
partly cloudy conditions by afternoon west of the Continental
Divide.

The models continue to indicate that low to mid level warming will
result in temps again rising on Sunday to between 65 and 70
degrees east of the Divide and 60 to 65 across western sections of
Wyoming. This will be at least 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
this time of the year, but not yet reaching record high levels.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Saturday
Issued at 142 AM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

The upper level low will be pulled towards WY starting Monday.
This will bring a chance for showers to our southwest regions
and a possibility for very isolated thunderstorms late in the
afternoon. As the weakening upper low moves across us Tuesday night,
some showers will move east of the divide, especially over and
near higher terrain. There will likely not be a lot of showers in
the lower elevations east of the divide but there will probably be
a few later Tuesday into Wednesday morning before the system
moves off to the east.

Moisture remains over the area in a weak flow Wednesday while
another weak disturbance approaches the west. More scattered to
numerous mountain showers will once again fire in the west with
some in mainly the mountains east of the divide also, peaking in
the afternoon hours as more weak instability redevelops with
daytime heating. Thursday still looks like we'll have brief
shortwave ridging for a dry day.

The next system which the models have been struggling with are
starting to come into general alignment as to its evolution which
is finally starting to fit the bigger picture mean ridge. With the
longwave ridge retreating slightly to the west a shortwave trough
and associated front will be able to slide into WY from the north.
The Canadian is pushing this system through by the end of Friday
while the others have a slower progression through Saturday. Will
side with the consensus and keep most of the activity on Saturday
and mainly in the mountains. There is a bit more cold air behind
this system than the one earlier in the week. With H7 temps
dipping between 0 and -5 east of the divide expect snow levels of
8.5kft to 7kft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 2 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period at all
TAF sites across the area. Winds should remain generally light
and variable at all locations and have only made very slight
direction and speed adjustments to a couple of the sites for the
forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 2 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the weekend
with many areas 10-15F above normal through Sunday. Minimum relative
humidity will range from around 20 percent to near 30 percent
again on Sunday. Will continue with the trending that wind speeds
will be generally less than 10 mph. The exception will be the
corridor from northeast Sweetwater County through Natrona County
where 10-20 mph southwest wind may occur again on Sunday afternoon.
Sunny to clear skies will continue into Sunday. Mid level clouds
are expected to shift northeast out of the southwest by Sunday
afternoon with some locations seeing partly cloudy conditions. It
should be cooler on Monday, with more cloudiness across the
western and southern sections with isolated chances for any
precipitation. Would still not rule out any isolated showers
Monday night across southwest Wyoming. Will continue with a
mention of a better chance of showers on Tuesday mainly in the
western mountains. Temperatures should remain slightly above
normal through the middle of next week.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
	

Latest GFS MOS for JAC
	KJAC   GFS MOS GUIDANCE   10/20/2018  1800 UTC
DT /OCT  21                  /OCT  22                /OCT  23
HR   00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18
N/X              29          64          31          61       34
TMP  60 45 39 34 31 34 52 62 61 46 38 36 34 36 49 59 59 46 40 36 50
DPT  24 27 28 28 27 29 30 28 28 30 30 31 31 32 34 32 32 33 34 34 35
CLD  CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL FW FW BK BK SC BK BK OV BK BK FW
WDR  25 03 01 36 01 00 16 20 25 01 36 01 01 36 02 14 29 01 01 01 18
WSP  03 04 05 05 04 00 01 05 03 05 05 04 04 02 02 05 05 06 06 04 03
P06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0    13    22  6  4
P12               0           0           0          14       22
Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0
Q12               0           0           0           0        0
T06      0/ 0  0/ 3  0/ 0  1/ 0  1/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  7/ 1  7/ 0  1/ 1
T12                  0/ 4        1/ 2        0/ 2       11/ 1  2/ 2
POZ   0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0
POS  10 22 25 39 30 38 22 17 18 22 23 44 36 32 23 15 17 21 35 29 25
TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R
SNW                                       0                    0
CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7
OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N



586
FOUS25 KWNO 201800

-----------------

KJAC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/20/2018  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
     SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25| FRI 26| SAT 27|SUN CLIMO
N/X  26  64| 31  62| 37  58| 36  57| 31  58| 32  56| 34  57| 29 23 49
TMP  28  61| 33  59| 38  55| 38  54| 33  54| 35  53| 37  55| 32
DPT  24  29| 31  33| 36  35| 36  36| 30  28| 31  25| 33  32| 28
CLD  CL  CL| PC  PC| OV  PC| PC  PC| PC  CL| PC  CL| OV  CL| CL
WND   5   5|  5   5|  5   5|  5   7|  6  17|  8  18| 14  18| 10
P12   0   0|  1  15| 23  37| 21  21| 10  16| 12  17| 24  22| 14999999
P24       0|     16|     54|     29|     22|     26|     33|      999
Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |
Q24       0|      0|      1|      0|      0|      0|       |
T12   1   1|  1   6|  8  20| 13  10|  6   1|  2   1|  1   2|  1
T24        |  1    | 12    | 24    | 10    |  2    |  2    |  4
PZP   4   2|  0   1|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0
PSN  31  29| 24  26| 26  25| 22  27| 27  33| 37  38| 33  42| 52
PRS  28  13| 17  11| 12  11| 14  14| 21  15| 16  16| 11   8| 14
TYP  RS  RS|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R| RS  RS| RS  RS|  R  RS|  S
SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |

	
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