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Latest ZFP from WFO RIW
	
National Weather Service Local Forecast for Star Valley Ranch
Updated: 17 Jun 01:15 am MDT

Overnight... Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Light east
southeast wind. 

Monday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after
3pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming west
northwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is
30%.

Monday Night... A 20 percent chance of showers between 9pm and
midnight.  Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing,
with a low around 47. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in
the evening. 

Tuesday... Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Calm wind
becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. 

Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. West wind
5 to 9 mph becoming calm  after midnight. 

Wednesday... Sunny, with a high near 71. Light and variable
wind becoming west 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as
high as 28 mph. 

Wednesday Night... Mostly clear, with a low around 44.
Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. 

Thursday... Sunny, with a high near 66.

Thursday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Friday... Sunny, with a high near 62.

Friday Night... Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Saturday... A slight chance of showers.  Mostly sunny, with a
high near 62.

Saturday Night... A slight chance of showers.  Partly cloudy,
with a low around 40.

Sunday... A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly
sunny, with a high near 66.

	

Latest AFD from WFO RIW
	National Weather Service Riverton WY
1152 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Diurnal heating combined with instability, a baroclinic zone along
the Continental Divide, and above average precipitable water values
will result in an increase in coverage of thunderstorms for the rest
of the afternoon especially along and east of the Divide. The
convection west of the Divide especially over the southwest will be
very isolated at best as instability in that region is quite weak.
The main hazard from convection will be heavy rainfall and small
hail. A few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe
hail. Some convection could linger again well into the night
especially east of the Divide with perhaps a focus on Fremont and
Natrona where models show the instability remaining in place the
longest.

Another active convective day is expected Monday. The main changes
from Sunday, both moisture and instability will be higher over the
far west and southwest as the weak frontal boundary will be over
southwest Wyoming. This will allow for better chances of
thunderstorms across the that area. Elsewhere, chance of
thunderstorms will be relatively the same as today with the best
overall chances on the lee side of mountain ranges into the
foothills. Temperatures will be below average Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

For Tuesday, the models are in similar agreement involving
allowing for some weak ridging to advance into the forecast area.
Will be expecting that there should be still scattered mainly
afternoon/mid evening thunderstorm coverage again. It still should
be slightly less than Monday's scattered showers/storms. By
Wednesday, drying in the low-mid levels will be more evident with
lower precipitable water values progged to be over the area. Will
still carry isolated showers and storms in the northern areas from
afternoon through Wednesday evening. The upper jet is expected to
shift into the region on Wednesday from the Pacific and we can
expect breezy conditions in the central and south areas in the
afternoon into early evening.

The models indicate that a cold front will move through the north
into and through the forecast area by Thursday evening. Will
continue with the basic precip trending on Thursday with scattered
chances for afternoon/evening showers/storms over the north and
isolated storms possible in central sections. It is expected that
the south and southwest areas should remain generally dry.  Still
breezy to windy in the central and south Thursday with a west wind.
Cooler highs over the north with slightly cooler highs central and
south.

The weather pattern is expected to continue to indicate that a
trough will be moving across the northern and central Rockies
through the end of the extended forecast period. The models to
varying degrees indicate that it will remain unsettled with
scattered showers/storms expected in most areas through the weekend.
Cooler high temps are expected from Friday through Sunday with temps
possibly between 15-20 degrees below normal Friday and Saturday and
still around 10 degrees below normal on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1146 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Thunderstorms have weakened for most of the region. Light rain
between RIW and CPR will move across CPR during the next few
hours, but cigs and vis will remain VFR. Winds will remain light
and variable overnight, except for gusty winds at RKS for a couple
more hours. Another round of daytime showers and thunderstorms is
expected again Monday for areas east of the divide. Main aviation
threat near these storms will be variably gusty winds. Any
thunderstorms will be decreasing Monday evening, with only some
possible VCSH near CPR lasting through 06Z Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 213 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to impact areas roughly
along and north of a Jackson to Lander to Casper line this
afternoon and evening. Very isolated thunderstorms are expected
south of this area this afternoon and early evening. Showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm will linger past midnight east of the
Divide. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across
the entire area Monday.

Winds will generally be light, except wind caused by afternoon
and evening thunderstorms. Relative humidity recovery will
be excellent tonight, and minimum relative humidity Monday is
expected to be higher than yesterday especially over the
southwest. Monday afternoon smoke dispersal will be fair to
perhaps low good in most locations. The trend for the middle of
the week will be lower relative humidity, winds increasing, and
lower chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
	

Latest GFS MOS for JAC
	KJAC   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    6/17/2019  0000 UTC
DT /JUNE 17            /JUNE 18                /JUNE 19          /
HR   06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00
X/N                    67          45          65          43    70
TMP  51 48 46 53 59 63 60 55 50 48 46 53 59 62 60 55 50 47 44 66 66
DPT  47 47 45 49 49 47 47 50 48 47 45 49 49 46 46 49 48 46 44 42 32
CLD  OV OV BK BK BK BK OV OV BK BK BK SC BK BK BK BK OV SC FW FW SC
WDR  36 01 35 36 19 25 32 05 01 36 34 19 22 24 22 22 15 35 33 20 21
WSP  04 04 02 02 05 05 06 10 02 02 03 02 08 09 08 09 04 02 03 18 22
P06        18    28    52    44    15    28    54    43    10  2  3
P12                    69          52          67          43     5
Q06         0     0     1     1     0     0     2     1     0  0  0
Q12                     2           1           2           1     0
T06     11/ 0 24/ 1 60/ 8 44/ 1  9/ 0 22/ 2 60/ 6 35/ 2  1/ 0 11/ 5
T12           24/ 4       78/ 9       22/ 3       68/ 6     3/ 3
CIG   7  7  8  8  8  7  8  7  8  8  8  8  7  7  7  7  7  8  8  8  8
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7
OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N



866
FOUS24 KWNO 170000

-----------------

KJAC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/17/2019  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
MON  17| TUE 18| WED 19| THU 20| FRI 21| SAT 22| SUN 23| MON 24 CLIMO
X/N  67| 45  65| 43  70| 40  62| 31  55| 35  56| 37  60| 41  64 39 73
TMP  60| 46  60| 44  66| 41  55| 32  53| 36  52| 39  57| 42  61
DPT  47| 45  46| 44  32| 32  28| 29  30| 36  38| 39  38| 40  37
CLD  PC| OV  PC| PC  CL| PC  PC| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV
WND   6| 10   9|  9  22| 22  26| 23   9| 13   9|  7  16| 14  14
P12  69| 52  67| 43   5| 10  17| 14  32| 51  49| 43  35| 30  33999999
P24    |     85|     46|     22|     43|     67|     58|     50   999
Q12   2|  1   2|  1   0|  0   0|  0   1|  4   4|  3    |
Q24    |      2|      1|      0|      1|      3|       |
T12  72| 53  65| 35  11|  8  10|  8  19| 30  41| 27  30| 24  25
T24    | 79    | 69    | 11    | 10    | 45    | 49    | 40

	
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